| IndianaWeatherOnline.com 2009/2010 Winter Outlook Issued: November 10th, 2009 at 8:00 PM by Brandon Redmond IndianaWeatherOnline.com has been issuing winter forecasts since 2003. Winter begins on December 21st, so what can Indiana & Ohio expect this winter? That is the thousand dollar question, and unfortunately, most forecasters and meteorologist have significantly varying opinions as we go into the 2009/2010 winter. IndianaWeatherOnline.com’s winter forecast will likely just add to the confusion of varying opinions. The winter forecast is compiled based on several factors. Analogs, Oceanic Temperatures, Climatology and Pattern Recognition are just a few of the factors used when making seasonal forecasts. Analogs in meteorology compare the current weather pattern to previous winter patterns. Oceanic temperatures refer to El Nino and La Nina which both refer to the Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific provide a regulating force for North American Weather, particularly temperatures and winter storm tracks. Therefore the forecasting of the Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific is a focal point for winter and Seasonal Forecasting. Before we dive into this year’s forecast, I’d like to provide a brief description on the effects La Nina and El Nino have on the Midwest/Ohio Valley winter seasons. La Nina years typically tend to provide a wealth of snowfall across our area due to several reasons. First, the Pacific Jet Stream tends to track farther North across the Central United States, often times causing storm system after storm to track Northeast across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. During La Nina years, the Pacific Jet also tends to come onshore farther North, generally in the Pacific Northwest. At the same time, the Polar Jet Stream often dives southeast out of Western and Central Canada bringing cold Arctic air down into the United States. As these two jets collide across the Central United States, the recipe is right for major winter storms. The Midwest/Ohio Valley also tend to experience an abundance of clipper-type systems due to a strong Polar Jet, which in-turn also often times means above-normal Lake-Effect Snowfall in the typical favored snow belts. The opposite occurs during El Nino years. The Pacific Jet often tracks well south of the Midwest/Ohio Valley, causing most of the storm systems to have little or no affect on our area. The Polar jet tends to track well North and East of the Ohio Valley, and leaves us with above to well-above normal temperatures. Over the course of the past several months, the Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific have remained neutral, which means that neither El Nino or La Nina are prevalent and that temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific remain neutral or near normal. There is some indication that as we progress through the winter months, Sea Surface Temperatures will warm in the Equatorial Pacific and the pattern will progress towards a weak to moderate El Nino. The warming of the Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (El Nino) plays a significant role on the sensible weather here in the Ohio Valley. One of the most contested questions among forecasters as we approach this winter is just how warm the temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific might get. Most of our forecast data continues to indicate temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific warming, especially towards the beginning of 2010. It has also been noted however, that the forecast models tend to have a bias of over-forecasting Sea Surface Temperatures and over-forecasting El Nino conditions. It is my belief and forecast, that Sea Surface Temperatures will remain neutral (ENSO Neutral) through January, with a trend towards warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (El Nino) by February and March. With neutral Sea Surface Temperatures, the temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific will likely have very little impact on our winter here in North America, making this forecast much more challenging than normal. Snow cover across North America, particularly across Canada, appears to be normal for this time of year. The intrusion of Arctic air has already been very prevalent with most of the Ohio Valley experiencing one of the coldest October’s on record. With the pattern continuing to evolve into an early winter like set-up and arctic air and snow cover in place across Canada, it appears likely that colder than normal temperatures will continue to prevail through the end of December. The weather pattern over the past several months has been hyperactive with dozens of storm systems affecting the Ohio Valley. Record precipitation for the month of October fell across much of Indiana, Illinois and Missouri. With the jet stream continuing to track across the Ohio Valley and the overall global weather pattern remaining active, a wetter than normal December is expected. With the combination of colder than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, snowfall definitely seems possible as we progress through the month of December and it would not be unreasonable to predict an above normal chance for a White Christmas. January’s forecast is a bit problematic with no strong forecast indicators. Out of all 4 months outlined in this forecast, below normal confidence exists with this January forecast. With that said, it would appear that the pattern and jet stream will essentially flatten or possibly even ridge to our North and West during the mid part of January. This means that the storm track will be to our West, and Indiana and Ohio will be left with near normal to above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Essentially, even though this is a low confidence forecast, it is believed that January will provide a brief break from winter. During the months of February and March, the confidence of this forecast increases significantly. Cold and even arctic air look to be entrenched across much of the Midwest and Northeast during the months of February and March and with a progressive Pacific Jet Stream, the recipe will be ripe for plenty of winter precipitation. Current indications would lead to a significant increase in low pressure systems traveling northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico during February and March. These systems would bring plenty of moisture and warm air with them as they traverse across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. The potential will exist if this forecast comes to fruition for ice storms in February and March as the warm air collides with the arctic air in place across the Ohio Valley. After plenty of reading, here is the short version of our 2009/2010 Winter Forecast: December: Above Normal Precipitation; Below Normal Temperatures January: Below Normal Precipitation; Near Normal Temperatures February: Above Normal Precipitation, Below Normal Temperatures March: Near Normal Precipitation, Much Below Normal Temperatures Compiled Forecast for December – March Temperatures: Below Normal Precipitation: Near Normal Snowfall: 100-125% of Normal There are plenty of other winter forecasts out there, and to some degree each and every one is slightly different. The majority of winter forecasts for the Midwest and Ohio Valley that have been issued by the private meteorology sector and broadcast industry agree that the Ohio Valley and Midwest will experience Below Normal Temperatures. The National Weather Service’s forecast is a completely different forecast for this upcoming winter and has the Midwest and Ohio Valley experiencing near normal temperatures with much below normal precipitation. Have a safe and enjoyable winter and thanks for reading! Brandon Redmond www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com Whitewater Broadcasting |
| Each year IndianaWeatherOnline.com releases a Seasonal/Winter Forecast. Due to technical difficulties, we have had problems getting the forecast on the website, but your wait is finally over! The 2009/2010 Winter Weather Forecast, in it's entirety follows below! |
