Early Projections for Sunday Night/Monday
First, a quick note about this mornings surprise snowfall, the low pressure system is finally starting to wind down and weaken a tad, but areas South of Indianapolis could still get some light snow and up to an inch through the early morning hours, no other changes.
Now with the storm for Monday Night and Tuesday, I have no changes. I still expect the storm to take a Farther South track and there are a lot of models that are trending that way (towards a Southern Solution) and that support my forecast. In fact the new NAM (North American Forecast Model) show a really descent snowfall event across portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Right now, I expect the best potential for accumulating snow to fall across the Northern half of Indiana and the Northern half of Ohio (generally North of Interstate 70). I think someone could see well over 8 inches of snowfall from this storm, probably closer to the Michigan border, but there will be a large area of 3-6 inches across most of the Northern half of Indiana. Remember that these are my early projections for this storm, and things could change but we are getting closer by the second and I do think that the National Weather Service will probably start issuing watches later today.
Just a quick FYI, we will have a better idea of what this storm will do later today as the forecast models ingest data from surface observations on the West Coast.
