Violent Severe Weather Outbreak Looming
A violent severe weather outbreak is looming for a large portion of the nation including the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. A strong low pressure system will develop and move into Iowa and Wisconsin by late Monday Night.
Initially a warm front will lift northward across the Oho Valley on Sunday Evening. Some elevated thunderstorms will likely develop along the warm front and some of those could become strong or severe by Sunday Evening and Sunday Night. The main threat with any thunderstorms on Sunday Evening and Sunday Night will be some isolated large hail and heavy rainfall. To our Southwest and West a major and violent tornado outbreak is possible across Missouri, Western Illinois, Arkansas and Oklahoma.
Current forecast guidance is pointing towards the violent severe weather outbreak contining on Monday Afternoon and Evening across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The latest forecast guidance shows the low deepening and moving into Northern Wisconsin with a cold front trailing into Missouri by Monday Evening. That will leave all of Indiana and Western Ohio in the warm sector.
The Triple Point will pass over far Northern Indiana and that could enhance the tornado threat. Also with temperatures climbing into the 60's and lower 70's and dewpoints climbing to near 60, the storm system will have plenty of instability to work with. Large hail and tornadoes will be a threat with any discrete storms/supercells early Monday Evening. But as the upper-level winds strengthen, I feel that the storms will likely congeal into a MCS or squall line. The storms will still pack a punch Monday Night with damaging winds and if the updrafts in the squall line can continue to rotate, then hail and isolated tornadoes will continue to be a threat.
Finally, with PWATS over 1.25 inches, heavy rain is a distinct possibility and thus more flooding could occur. 2-4 inches of rain will be possible by Tuesday Morning.
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