Severe Weather Episode Likely Thursday
Jansen and myself have bee forecasting a severe weather episode, one that will likely be major, on Thursday into Friday. So why do we think this will be a widespread and enhanced severe weather event? Well here are the answers!
By Thursday, you can see the area of deeper (blue and purple colors) over Western Missouri. This is the area of low pressure which is deepening and strengthening as it moves Northeast into Iowa. The area to the right (East) of this low pressure is where you will find the warm front and associated severe weather threat. On Friday, the cold front will extend South of the low pressure area and will provide a mechanism for yet another severe weather episode.
Dewpoints are a measure of the moisture in the atmosphere in relation to temperatures. Moisture is a key in production of severe weather. You can see 60 and 65 degree dewpoints streaming North into the Lower Great Lakes. The area where the black and green colors collide is where the warm front is located. Along and South of the warm front is where the highest tornado threat exists.
Lift Indicies (LI's) are a measure of the amount of lift and instability in the atmosphere. Negative values are found across the Ohio Valley, and these will likely be slightly lower than what current models are forecasting.
Finally, you can see a strong jet moving through the Midwest and Ohio Valley (the green and yellows) which would only enhance the severe weather threat and increase the threat for damaging winds.