Severe Weather Thursday, April 3rd
As many of you know, IndianaWeatherOnline.com's own forecaster Jansen Smith will be storm and tornado chasing tomorrow across parts of the Mississippi River Valley.
Jansen and I have been trying to pinpoint where the highest probability of severe weather will occur tomorrow and where he should target his chase. We have both decided we feel the highest risk of severe weather and tornados will be across Southern Missouri, Arkansas, Western Kentucky and Western Tennessee.
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting severe weather to be more likely across Texas, but neither of us see this being the enhanced risk area. That is why we are forecasting a moderate risk of severe storms in the areas listed above.
Below is a graphic showing surface cape base tomorrow afternoon, and you can see sufficient levels of cape across Jansen's target area.
Also, you can see that helicity values are actually the highest out of anywhere in the severe storm risk tomorrow across Jansen's Target area.
Shear values are also quite high across Jansen's Severe Weather Risk area
Here are lift indicies for tomorrow, falling below zero across Jansen's chase area
Here is the simulated radar for tomorrow, showing the potential for supercellular development and lewps by late afternoon
