June 6th Severe Weather Damage Photos
June 07, 2008
June 02, 2008
Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tuesday
A fairly sizeable severe weather event is looking to set-up across the Ohio Valley including all of Indiana and all of Western Ohio for Tuesday.
A strong trough of low pressure will eject Northeast into the Ohio Valley and an extremely unstable atmosphere will set up across the region. By afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop to our West and begin to move across Indiana and into Western Ohio.
Extremely high lapse rates and very cold upper air temperatures will promote the development of some extremely large hail. Wind backed southeasterly surface winds, some tornadoes will also be possible.
The exact details of the severe weather event are still in question, but it is looking more and more likely that a major severe weather event will take place tomorrow (on Tuesday).
As some of you saw, IndianaWeatherOnline.com tried a new Live Severe Weather Mode during Friday's Severe Weather Event. We used what is called a live blog and also had live video coverage of radar data on the frontpage of the site. If you saw and used the website during the Severe Weather Event on Friday, we are looking for feedback on whether you liked the coverage and what you would like to see during severe weather outbreaks, so please feel free to drop me an email.
May 30, 2008
Severe Storms Today (Friday May 30th)
A fairly significant severe weather outbreak is expected to unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley later this afternoon and into this evening. Severe Thunderstorms are currently on-going across parts of Illinois and Iowa.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area under a moderate risk for severe weather. I also agree with that forecast, and belive that a fairly significant severe weather episode appears likely.
The line of severe storms that is currently in Northern Illinois and Iowa will continue to move to East and could affect portions of Northwestern Indiana later today.
Meanwhile, more storms will develop farther South and West across portions of Eastern Missouri, Illinois and into Western Indiana. Upon initial development of the storms, some tornadoes will be possible before the storms become congealed into a squall line. The main threat for tornadoes will exist West of Indianapolis.
As the storms become and form into a squall line, they will rapidly race Eastward across Indiana and into Ohio producing widespread damaging winds, isolated large hail and a tornado or two.
May 23, 2008
Severe Weather on Memorial Day?
Memorial Day Weekend Forecast
Well for everyone with plans to be outside during the Holiday Weekend, the weather looks to be absolutely beautiful with plenty of sunshine and very mild temperatures. Temperatures will climb into the 70's and 80's through early next week. The only chance for rain through the Holiday Weekend will be late Monday Afternoon and Evening.
We are monitoring the possibility of what could be the possibility of a severe weather outbreak across parts of the Ohio Valley and Midwest on Monday (Memorial Day). We will of course be monitoring that throughout the weekend and will provide updates as necessary.
May 17, 2008
Warmer Weather Will Return!
As we head into next week, a ridge will develop to our West ushering in warmer weather across the Ohio Valley, but also setting the stage for thunderstorms across the area.
First of all though, we have to make it through this weekend which will feature cloudy skies, scattered rain showers and cooler than normal temperatures.
By Monday, warm front number one will slide Northeast across the Ohio Valley and will bring gusty winds, warmer air and some scattered after rain and thunderstorms.
By later this in the week, warm and moist air will return to the area and we will likely see the warmest temperatures of the year, with highs climbing into the 80's across a large portion of the area.
Unfortunately, this warm and moist air will set the stage for what could be a very stormy Memorial Day Weekend!
Stay tuned!
May 10, 2008
Major Severe Weather Outbreak - May 10th
A Major Severe Weather Outbreak is in the process of developing, which will ultimately affect a very large part of the United States. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas from Southwestern Indiana through Illinois, Kentucky, Arkansas and points farther South under a Moderate Risk for severe weather with a slight risk surroudning those areas. Violent tornadoes and extreme damaging winds will be likely from portions of Arkansas through the Lower Ohio Valley and into the South and Southeast.
May 03, 2008
Tornadoes Rip Through Mid-South Friday
While severe weather was more sporadic across the Ohio Valley on Friday, tornadoes and severe weather ripped through the Mid-South. Particularly hit hard was the town of Earle, Arkansas, where the NWS has preliminarily rated the tornado that struck that town as an EF-3.
From Earle, Arkansas:
May 02, 2008
Weekend Outlook
While some severe weather occurred on Friday, the storm was yet another under-performing event. These storms are just as awful to forecast as the ones this previous winter with last minute surface track discrepancies, under-performing moisture and insufficient instability.
Anyways, Friday did produce some severe hail across Southwestern and Western Indiana and we even saw a few tornado warnings near Gary.
As far as the rest of the weekend goes, we will see lingering showers and thunderstorms this morning and into the early afternoon hours, and those could affect the running of the Kentucky Derby.
Sunday will dry out but will also be cooler as the cold front sweeps through the area and causes winds to shift to the Northwest.
Severe Weather Update - 11:00 AM EDT
April 30, 2008
Severe Weather Friday?
Well I'll Try to answer that question, but as of right now there appear to be more questions than answers!
Ok so this could officially be the worst map I've ever made, lol and its very busy, but it shows what I'm thinking on Friday. I expect to see some early morning elevated convection along the warm front across Northern Illinois and that could produce some isolated hail and probably more heavy rain than anything. (Area in blue)
What still is yet to be determined is how fast that area across Illinois and Missouri clears out and how much instability is able to develop during the afternoon. The 950-900 MB layer will be close to saturated early Friday and that could mean that there could be some extensive low level clouds which limit heating and instability. Even with this possibility, the models are still cranking out some modest surface and mid level cape, and if any heating occurs it will only enhance the instability.
I do have some concerns because the NAM is already busting to high on dewpoints, but hopefully with a strong LLJ moisture won't be a problem. The NAM shows 65 degree dewpoints streaming north through the Ohio Valley, and even if that is a tad to high and we can get up or slightly above 60, it still should be favorable for severe weather and supercell development.
Winds backed to the SE across much of Northern Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois and into Eastern Missouri by early Friday Afternoon. There also looks to be strong some strong shear especially during the afternoon hours before the low slides farther to the Northeast.
With a possible outflow boundary from early morning convection, that could provide enough forcing to spark some pre-frontal thunderstorm development/supercells and segments during the afternoon hours. It looks like forcing will be very limited farther East across Indiana into Ohio, but Illinois into Northern Kentucky and Southeastern and Eastern Missouri could see some supercellular development conditional on sufficient heating and instability by the early afternoon hours. (Area in Red)
As the cold front sweeps East early Friday Evening, a squall line will likely race rapidly to East and Northeast and will bring some damaging winds and maybe some large hail with fairly steep lapse rates, but it looks like the tornado threat will be minimal by that time, so any tornadic development looks to stem from the afternoon convection and possible supercells.
The squall line will likely out race the cold front and continue to pose a threat for damaging winds as far East as Ohio, but with more limited instability and the squall line pulling farther away from the upper level dynamics, the severe threat will likely become more minimal the farther East you go. (Area in Dark Red)
Areas I see for the most widespread severe activtiy: Western and Southwestern Indiana, Northern and Northwestern Kentucky, Southern 2/3's of Illinois and Eastern and Southeastern Missouri and maybe down into portions of Arkansas and Western Tenn. (Didn't study those areas as much.)
Needless to say, it looks like it could be a moderate risk day in some areas.
April 28, 2008
Late Week Storms
While the storm is still several days off, it appears the chances for severe weather are increasing across the area for Thursday and Friday. A strong low pressure system will slide Northeast through the Mississippi Valley and will cause a warm front to swing through the area on Thursday.
An unstable atmosphere will be in place on Thursday, and some thunderstorms could fire along the warm front.
A cold front will then slide through the area on Friday and Friday Night and will bring another chance for severe weather to the area.
April 25, 2008
Severe Weather Update - 8:00 PM
Thunderstorms have made it to Central Illinois and continue to spread to the East Northeast. In fact there are even a few tornado warnings at this time in Central Illinois. A threat for damaging winds and large hail will spread into Western and Northwestern Indiana within the next few hours, but I do expect the line to begin weakening after midnight.
Severe Weather Update - 5:00 PM
Severe Weather is on-going to our West with lines and clusters of severe thunderstorms from Wisconsin through Illinois and into Missouri. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was issued earlier has now been upgraded to a Tornado Watch and there have been several tornado reports. We will be monitoring the situation throughout the evening!
Severe Weather Update - 3:00 PM
Storms are beginning to form across portions of Western Illinois and Eastern Missouri. A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for that area. The atmosphere continues to become increasingly unstable with cape values approaching 2000 across portions of Northern Indiana into Illinois. Here is the latest radar image from Illinois and Missouri:
April 22, 2008
Earth Day 2008
At Work:
Carpool
Pack your lunch in reusable containers
Send e-mail instead of paper mail
Use the back side of paper from printers and copiers
Turn off the computer when you're leaving
Doing the Laundry:
Wash and dry only full loads
Use the warm setting instead of hot
Rinse with cold water
Hang the laundry to dry, rather than using a dryer
April 21, 2008
Enjoy the Beautiful Weather!
The weather over the next several days is going to be absolutely fabulous, with plenty of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. A cold front is currently located to our West, and a Southwesterly flow is ushering in warm air across much of the Ohio Valley.
A few strong thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across portions of Iowa and Missouri along that cold front, and as the front slides Northeast, some isolated severe weather will be possible once again tomorrow across portions of Iowa, Illinois and possible far Western Indinaa. We are not expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak tough.
Later this week, another weather system will impact the area by Thursday Night and Friday, and more thunderstorms, some of which could be strong will be possible.
But lets not worry about that yet, as we have plenty of time to watch that storm, so until then, get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather!
April 18, 2008
5.2 Earthquake Shakes Indiana
IndianaWeatherOnline.com's Precision StormTracker can find more than just rain! Here are some images from our Radar Software from earlier this morning, showing exactly where the Earthquake was located. The initial tremor was rated a 5.2 with two 2.5 after-shocks!
April 16, 2008
Sneezing? Lots of Pollen in the forecast!
If you have been sneezing a lot here lately, it is likely due to extremely high pollen counts. The Pollen count remains in the high category across most of the Nation and will remain elevated through the end of the week.
If you have tree pollen allergies... some things to keep in mind:
* Avoid being outside in the morning, when tree pollen is highest. Save the outdoor activities until later in the day, when it subsides.
* Tree pollen is usually lower after a good rain, save longer outdoor
* Keep windows closed and use the A/C if needed
* Take a shower or bath before bed, as pollen can be carried into the house on your clothes or hair. (and even on your pet!)
As far as the weather goes, a weather system is still forecast to bring rain and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley by Friday Afternoon and into the day on Saturday. One thing that myself and Jansen have both noticed though, is that the models are continuing to slow down the system, so it could end up lingering into Sunday. Stay tuned!
April 13, 2008
Quiet Weather? Can it be so..........
This is the first time in months that I have blogged about nice weather, but yes, warm and sunny weather will be upon us for several days with little weather to discuss. A strong area of high pressure will control our weather through Thursday and a southwesterly flow will usher in warmer air across Indiana and Western Ohio.
Temperatures should climb into the 60's and 70's by Tuesday and will continue to stay warm into the weekend.
A cut-off area of low pressure will begin to impact the region on Thursday Night and especially on Friday and could produce some rain showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley. At this point, it is to early to speculate weather severe weather will be possible.
Have a great week and enjoy the beautiful weather!
April 12, 2008
What happened?
First of all I want to thank all my loyal viewers and all of you who are new viewers to the site for your support and continued belief in the IndianaWeatherOnline.com forecast products. Yesterday was a record day on IndianaWeatherOnline.com with over 46,000 visits! That is simply amazing and of course that happens on a day when I produce one of the worsts forecasts possible.
I can honestly say that the past two days worth of forecasting have been some of the worsts I have issued in some time, and thus I am issuing this final update for our non-existent storm to critique my forecasts and outline a few changes within our network of IndianaWeatherOnline.com sites.
First of all, in reference to this past storm, I "busted" my forecasts for several reasons. For more than 10 days out, the storm I had forecasted to be one that would produce a widespread and major severe weather outbreak had shown signs of being a "powerhouse" storm and all indications pointed to what would be a prolific severe weather outbreak.
In my emails, on my radio station forecasts and in news print, I had outlined the details and locations where I thought severe weather would occur, which included most of the state of Indiana and all of Western Ohio.
By yesterday morning (Thursday), it still appeared we would be on track for a major severe weather day, but by late morning several things had gone wrong. First, the low pressure strengthened essentially to rapidly and the severe weather potential was maximized farther South and West. Secondly, the warm front stalled near Interstate 70 and left a large chunk of the area in the cold zone of the storm, which limited instability.
Needless to say, there were only 4 tornado warnings issued in Indiana and those were in the far Southern and Southwestern part of the state, none which verified any confirmed tornadoes.
I am by all means, extremely glad that we did not see a major severe weather outbreak, as the last thing I would ever want to see is damage to property or injuries and deaths, but did feel it necessary to provide this update as to why my forecast was simply so "off."
Quickly as far as our upcoming weather goes, expect some light rain and snow showers through the weekend with a fairly seasonable and quiet weather week in store for next week, so Jansen and myself are going to be enjoying a quiet and easy weather week.
Now as far as IndianaWeatherOnline.com, we have unveiled a few new additions and changes to the site.
We have added a daily Golf Forecast called GolfCast for all of you golfers! Jansen will be the primary forecaster for this page of the site, as he himself is an avid golfer. You can find the link for the GolfCast on the frontpage of the site.
We also have added a Weather Chatroom which can be accessed at www.TheWeatherChat.com
Jansen is maintaining his own weather blog that addresses current weather trends and changes in the upcoming weather pattern.
Finally, we are producing severe weather outlooks for the Eastern half of the United States out to 48 hours in advance every day, and those can be accessed under our Storm Center Page.
More features will be coming soon!
I'm still working on advertising on our network of sites, but if your business is interested, we still have a few open spots, so please contact me.
I can honestly say that the past two days worth of forecasting have been some of the worsts I have issued in some time, and thus I am issuing this final update for our non-existent storm to critique my forecasts and outline a few changes within our network of IndianaWeatherOnline.com sites.
First of all, in reference to this past storm, I "busted" my forecasts for several reasons. For more than 10 days out, the storm I had forecasted to be one that would produce a widespread and major severe weather outbreak had shown signs of being a "powerhouse" storm and all indications pointed to what would be a prolific severe weather outbreak.
In my emails, on my radio station forecasts and in news print, I had outlined the details and locations where I thought severe weather would occur, which included most of the state of Indiana and all of Western Ohio.
By yesterday morning (Thursday), it still appeared we would be on track for a major severe weather day, but by late morning several things had gone wrong. First, the low pressure strengthened essentially to rapidly and the severe weather potential was maximized farther South and West. Secondly, the warm front stalled near Interstate 70 and left a large chunk of the area in the cold zone of the storm, which limited instability.
Needless to say, there were only 4 tornado warnings issued in Indiana and those were in the far Southern and Southwestern part of the state, none which verified any confirmed tornadoes.
I am by all means, extremely glad that we did not see a major severe weather outbreak, as the last thing I would ever want to see is damage to property or injuries and deaths, but did feel it necessary to provide this update as to why my forecast was simply so "off."
Quickly as far as our upcoming weather goes, expect some light rain and snow showers through the weekend with a fairly seasonable and quiet weather week in store for next week, so Jansen and myself are going to be enjoying a quiet and easy weather week.
Now as far as IndianaWeatherOnline.com, we have unveiled a few new additions and changes to the site.
We have added a daily Golf Forecast called GolfCast for all of you golfers! Jansen will be the primary forecaster for this page of the site, as he himself is an avid golfer. You can find the link for the GolfCast on the frontpage of the site.
We also have added a Weather Chatroom which can be accessed at www.TheWeatherChat.com
Jansen is maintaining his own weather blog that addresses current weather trends and changes in the upcoming weather pattern.
Finally, we are producing severe weather outlooks for the Eastern half of the United States out to 48 hours in advance every day, and those can be accessed under our Storm Center Page.
More features will be coming soon!
I'm still working on advertising on our network of sites, but if your business is interested, we still have a few open spots, so please contact me.
April 08, 2008
Severe Weather Episode Likely Thursday
Jansen and myself have bee forecasting a severe weather episode, one that will likely be major, on Thursday into Friday. So why do we think this will be a widespread and enhanced severe weather event? Well here are the answers!
By Thursday, you can see the area of deeper (blue and purple colors) over Western Missouri. This is the area of low pressure which is deepening and strengthening as it moves Northeast into Iowa. The area to the right (East) of this low pressure is where you will find the warm front and associated severe weather threat. On Friday, the cold front will extend South of the low pressure area and will provide a mechanism for yet another severe weather episode.
Dewpoints are a measure of the moisture in the atmosphere in relation to temperatures. Moisture is a key in production of severe weather. You can see 60 and 65 degree dewpoints streaming North into the Lower Great Lakes. The area where the black and green colors collide is where the warm front is located. Along and South of the warm front is where the highest tornado threat exists.
Lift Indicies (LI's) are a measure of the amount of lift and instability in the atmosphere. Negative values are found across the Ohio Valley, and these will likely be slightly lower than what current models are forecasting.
Finally, you can see a strong jet moving through the Midwest and Ohio Valley (the green and yellows) which would only enhance the severe weather threat and increase the threat for damaging winds.
Severe Weather Update
Just a quick post this evening, but one thing everyone must remember when we are dealing with forecasting severe weather is that it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly what will happen with a severe weather episode until the day it is expected to occur due to so many variables that don't come together until the last minute. The mesoscale details of a storm cannot be fine-tuned until the day of, when we are able to see where front positions end up setting up, where outflow boundaries form, where shear and instability is the highest, etc.
Therefore, it remains nearly impossible to pinpoint what areas will see the most significant severe weather, but I still stand by my forecast that a major severe weather episode will be likely on Thursday and Friday across the Ohio Valley!
April 07, 2008
IndianaWeatherOnline.com Weather Alert
IndianaWeatherOnline.com Dangerous Severe Weather Alert
Issued by Brandon Redmond on April 7th, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Two rounds of severe weather are possible this week, with the second one being much worse than the first.
The first round of severe weather will arrive by late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Thunderstorms will develop across Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky and spread into Indiana and eventually Western Ohio. The storms will likely start out as supercells, but will eventually congeal into a squall line. The highest risk of severe weather before 8:00 PM will be west of Indianapolis, and those areas will also have the highest risk for tornadoes. After 8:00 PM, the squall line will likely overspread the entire area with a risk of damaging winds, isolated large hail and heavy rainfall.
While round one of the thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe weather, round number two on Thursday and Friday will be much much much more dangerous.
By Thursday and Friday, an extremely strong weather system will be located to our west, in fact it is forecasted to deepen (strengthen) to levels I personally cannot remember ever seeing. A widespread and dangerous, possibly record-breaking tornado outbreak will occur on Thursday and Friday from the Great Lakes all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. This storm in fact has numerous similarities as far as the track, strength and current weather pattern to the infamous April 3rd, 1974 tornado outbreak.
This system will bring several rounds of tornadic and severe thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley, beginning as early as Thursday Afternoon and continuing through Friday when the cold front will finally pass through the region. The third round of severe weather on Friday will likely be in the form of a very dangerous derecho (extremely intense squall line) that will be capable of producing winds in excess of 100 mph in some areas.
While I know that often times weather forecasts seem blown out of proportion and "hyped", I cannot express enough how dangerous this storm looks on Thursday and Friday. While a lot can change between now and then, all indications point towards a severe weather outbreak that will go down in the history books. Please, please, please monitor the weather forecasts during the next several days. I will be updating the site quite often, and in fact the site is already in severe weather mode. Also we have added a weather chatroom and you can discuss the storm on our forums at LetsTalkWeather.net
Jansen and myself will be doing live video updates all week to keep you all updated.
Stay tuned and stay safe
Issued by Brandon Redmond on April 7th, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Two rounds of severe weather are possible this week, with the second one being much worse than the first.
The first round of severe weather will arrive by late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Thunderstorms will develop across Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky and spread into Indiana and eventually Western Ohio. The storms will likely start out as supercells, but will eventually congeal into a squall line. The highest risk of severe weather before 8:00 PM will be west of Indianapolis, and those areas will also have the highest risk for tornadoes. After 8:00 PM, the squall line will likely overspread the entire area with a risk of damaging winds, isolated large hail and heavy rainfall.
While round one of the thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe weather, round number two on Thursday and Friday will be much much much more dangerous.
By Thursday and Friday, an extremely strong weather system will be located to our west, in fact it is forecasted to deepen (strengthen) to levels I personally cannot remember ever seeing. A widespread and dangerous, possibly record-breaking tornado outbreak will occur on Thursday and Friday from the Great Lakes all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. This storm in fact has numerous similarities as far as the track, strength and current weather pattern to the infamous April 3rd, 1974 tornado outbreak.
This system will bring several rounds of tornadic and severe thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley, beginning as early as Thursday Afternoon and continuing through Friday when the cold front will finally pass through the region. The third round of severe weather on Friday will likely be in the form of a very dangerous derecho (extremely intense squall line) that will be capable of producing winds in excess of 100 mph in some areas.
While I know that often times weather forecasts seem blown out of proportion and "hyped", I cannot express enough how dangerous this storm looks on Thursday and Friday. While a lot can change between now and then, all indications point towards a severe weather outbreak that will go down in the history books. Please, please, please monitor the weather forecasts during the next several days. I will be updating the site quite often, and in fact the site is already in severe weather mode. Also we have added a weather chatroom and you can discuss the storm on our forums at LetsTalkWeather.net
Jansen and myself will be doing live video updates all week to keep you all updated.
Stay tuned and stay safe
A Week To Remember
If you haven't picked up on the hints Jansen and myself have dropped over the past few days, I am going to spell it out for you, this will be a historical week of weather that many will remember for years to come.
From a raging blizzard stretching from Nebraska into the Dakota on Eastward to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, to a major and what will likely be a historical tornado outbreak from the Southern Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, Thursday and Friday's storm will be one with major implications for half of the Nation.
The storm will develop on Wednesday in the Southern Plains and just as quickly as it develops, it will become a major powerhouse of storms, the storm of all storms, at least compared to anything we have seen in the past several years.
The storm will strengthen to below 990 MB which is considered a very major storm, and some of our models develop the low pressure much deeper than that. A low pressure system will be located near Northwestern Missouri/Northeastern Kansas by Thursday with a warm front layed out from Kansas City to Columbus, Ohio. Isolated tornadoes and supercells will develop by Thursday afternoon across the Ohio Valley, and any storm that becomes a right mover along the warm front will be capable of producing violent tornadoes.
The storm will continue into Friday, with possibly two more rounds of severe weather, including the possibility for an extensive squall line to develop along the cold front by Friday Afternoon.
So here in the Ohio Valley what can we expect? Well basically any and every type of severe weather, including extremely damaging winds, large hail and violent tornadoes. Heavy rain will also be possible and will only aggrivate the flooding situation.
Below is an image of the 00z UKMET from this morning, showing what would likely be a historical storm deepening to 983 MB in Southern Wisconsin.
April 05, 2008
This Week Compared to 1974
The storm system on Thursday & Friday looks pretty impressive to me if the models keep such a strong trough. The set up on the gfs looks like there could be a dry punch at mid levels. The big catch is its still very early in the game so things, the trough evolution still could change and lessen the threat. For fun compare the 132 hr forecast from the GFS with April 3, 1974. Not a perfect match but some similarities in that both show a strong trough with a potent low level jet.
Attached is a 4 panel image of the 1974 outbreak, and the other two are model images showing the possibility for Friday. Definitely some comparisons.
April 04, 2008
Next Week's Severe Weather Producer
The EURO and other operational models continue to show a well-developed low pressure system with an amplifying trough and almost a perfect severe weather set-up for a large part of the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. The storm will likely begin to affect the Western Portions of Indiana late Monday Night, but our main show should be on Tuesday.
Here are some images I drew up based on the EURO's depiction for early next week
Debris Ball On Radar Near Little Rock
While this necessarily doesn't have to do with the weather here in Indiana, it is extremely interesting. Last night, as many of you already know, a tornado touched down in parts of the Little Rock area. We were tracking the storms over at LetsTalkWeather.net and I noticed an interesting feature on doppler radar, called a debris ball.
The debris ball is a relatively new concept, and was discovered only less than 2 months ago when tornadoes ravished parts of Tennessee.
Last night's radar images showed a well defined debris ball in the Little Rock Metro area and I have hi-lited the region where it was indicated in the image below. A debris ball is a feature picked up on doppler radar when there is debris spinning in the air associated with a tornado on the ground.
April 02, 2008
Severe Weather Thursday, April 3rd
As many of you know, IndianaWeatherOnline.com's own forecaster Jansen Smith will be storm and tornado chasing tomorrow across parts of the Mississippi River Valley.
Jansen and I have been trying to pinpoint where the highest probability of severe weather will occur tomorrow and where he should target his chase. We have both decided we feel the highest risk of severe weather and tornados will be across Southern Missouri, Arkansas, Western Kentucky and Western Tennessee.
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting severe weather to be more likely across Texas, but neither of us see this being the enhanced risk area. That is why we are forecasting a moderate risk of severe storms in the areas listed above.
Below is a graphic showing surface cape base tomorrow afternoon, and you can see sufficient levels of cape across Jansen's target area.
Also, you can see that helicity values are actually the highest out of anywhere in the severe storm risk tomorrow across Jansen's Target area.
Shear values are also quite high across Jansen's Severe Weather Risk area
Here are lift indicies for tomorrow, falling below zero across Jansen's chase area
Here is the simulated radar for tomorrow, showing the potential for supercellular development and lewps by late afternoon
A New Addition to IndianaWeatherOnline.com
IndianaWeatherOnline.com is pleased to announce the addition of Jansen Smith to the IndianaWeatherOnline.com Forecasting Staff. Jansen is currently a senior in high school and lives in Owensboro, Kentucky near the Indiana/Kentucky state line.
Jansen will be contributing to forecasts efforts for Southern Indiana and will be maintaining his own weather blog at www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com/JansensWeatherBlog
With an increase in viewers and email subscribers across Southern and Southwestern Indiana, Jansen will be an excellent additional resource to IndianaWeatherOnline.com. Jansen will help to keep all of you in the Southern half of Indiana and for that matter Northern Kentucky updated with the latest forecast information.
Following high school, Jansen will be majoring in meteorology in college.
To email Jansen or welcome him to the IndianaWeatherOnline.com staff, you can reach him via email at Jansen@IndianaWeatherOnline.com
March 30, 2008
Severe Weather Monday March 31st
Here are some images I put together, explaining out severe weather threat for tomorrow and tomorrow night.
March 29, 2008
Violent Severe Weather Outbreak Looming
A violent severe weather outbreak is looming for a large portion of the nation including the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. A strong low pressure system will develop and move into Iowa and Wisconsin by late Monday Night.
Initially a warm front will lift northward across the Oho Valley on Sunday Evening. Some elevated thunderstorms will likely develop along the warm front and some of those could become strong or severe by Sunday Evening and Sunday Night. The main threat with any thunderstorms on Sunday Evening and Sunday Night will be some isolated large hail and heavy rainfall. To our Southwest and West a major and violent tornado outbreak is possible across Missouri, Western Illinois, Arkansas and Oklahoma.
Current forecast guidance is pointing towards the violent severe weather outbreak contining on Monday Afternoon and Evening across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The latest forecast guidance shows the low deepening and moving into Northern Wisconsin with a cold front trailing into Missouri by Monday Evening. That will leave all of Indiana and Western Ohio in the warm sector.
The Triple Point will pass over far Northern Indiana and that could enhance the tornado threat. Also with temperatures climbing into the 60's and lower 70's and dewpoints climbing to near 60, the storm system will have plenty of instability to work with. Large hail and tornadoes will be a threat with any discrete storms/supercells early Monday Evening. But as the upper-level winds strengthen, I feel that the storms will likely congeal into a MCS or squall line. The storms will still pack a punch Monday Night with damaging winds and if the updrafts in the squall line can continue to rotate, then hail and isolated tornadoes will continue to be a threat.
Finally, with PWATS over 1.25 inches, heavy rain is a distinct possibility and thus more flooding could occur. 2-4 inches of rain will be possible by Tuesday Morning.
For the IndianaWeatherOnline.com Severe Weather Outlooks, please visit the IndianaWeatherOnline.com Severe Storm Center.
March 27, 2008
Winter Storm Tonight?
Just when you think ol' man winter is finally letting go of his strong grasp on winter, we are looking at yet another winter weather event tonight and tomorrow.
Rain will change to sleet and snow across far Northern Indiana tonight and some accumualting snow is likely. The National Weather Service has issued a *Winter Weather Advisory* in effect for all of Northern Indiana tonight. Snow and sleet will be likely and could cause some slick roads by morning.
2-4 inches of snow is generally likely, with snow accumulations more likely on grassy surfaces.
More Heavy Rain/Thunderstorms Next Week
A stormy spring pattern is taking shape across the Ohio Valley. Heavy rain is likely tonight and some isolated strong thunderstorms are not out of the question. An inch to an inch and a half will be possible by tomorrow morning. This will only aggrivate the flooding situation and some additional minor flooding problems will be possible.
As colder air filters into the area by tomorrow morning, some sleet and light snow showers could mix in with any light rain that is still lingering across the area.
The main reason for this email though is to alert you all to the growing ominous potential for a sizeable severe weather outbreak and the possibility of a looming major flood event. Rain will be possible by Sunday Evening and will continue into Monday and Tuesday. As a strong low pressure system ejects Northeast into the Upper Ohio Valley, an episode of severe weather will be possible on Monday Night and into early Tuesday.
As much as three inches of rain could fall between Sunday and Tuesday and isolated higher amounts will be likely. In fact, our latest forecast guidance indicates the possibility of well over 5 inches of rain across a large portion of Indiana and Western Ohio.
March 26, 2008
Spring Outlook Maps
The Official IndianaWeatherOnline.com Spring Forecast
With Winter officially coming to an end, Spring will be welcomed with renewed heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Warmer temperatures will arrive early next week with temperatures climbing above-normal on Sunday and Monday.
The main weather concern early next week will be the possibility of additional heavy rainfall. The first three months of this year have brought Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio over 200% more precipitation than normal, explaining why we are experiencing constant flooding problems. The soil remains 150% saturated and many streams and rivers remain in a flood stage.
Rain will likely begin Sunday Night and will continue into Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will likely exceed three inches by Tuesday, and the possibility is there for quite a bit more than that. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Monday and Tuesday and with above-normal temperatures and a strengthening weather system, some strong thunderstorms are not out of the question.
Looking ahead to the rest of the Spring weather season, it appears that our weather is going to continue to be influenced by the weather phenomena called La Niña. The term La Niña means that ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of South America are colder than normal. This affects the weather across the United States in many ways, primarily by causing storms that form to be stronger. Here in the Ohio Valley, we typically experience much wetter Springs when the weather pattern is affected by La Niña, and that will almost definitely be the case this Spring.
With that in mind, flooding and over-saturated soils will continue to plague Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio through at least June.
So while the phrase "April showers bring May flowers" often is true in most Spring weather seasons, this year we will probably have to change that phrase to say "April showers bring more May flooding."
For more weather information, please visit www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com and www.LetsTalkWeather.net and you can hear my daily forecasts on Winchester's WZZY Star 98.3
March 25, 2008
Stormy Pattern
Yet another stormy pattern is looming. Storm systems are lining up across the Pacific.
The first storm will impact the region Wednesday Night through Friday. The storm will dig into the Ohio Valley and a warm front will stretch from Springfield, Missouri to Cleveland, Ohio. The exact placement of this low will divide the colder part of this system from the warm sector where heavy rain rain and strong thunderstorms will be possible. In fact, I am leaning toward the idea of a winter weather event for the Northern third of Indiana on Thursday Night and Friday. Simply amazing, stating that it is almost April! The rest of Indiana and all of West Central Ohio will experience warmer air and the potential for heavy rainfall. In fact, our latest model guidance points towards the possibility of 2-3 inches of rainfall. While I am not confident at this point on this aspect of the storm, strong and severe storms could be possible Thursday Afternoon.
Storm Number 2 will arrive here on the last day of the month. That storm system looks to be a widespread severe weather maker, but more on that later.
March 18, 2008
What A Storm!!
Just Take A Look At How Large This Storm Is! This is a picture via Google Earth showing just how large this storm is and how much precipitation is out there! JUST AMAZING!
Flooding Likely Tonight
Heavy rainfall is currently overspreading the state of Indiana and will continue to plague Indiana and Western Ohio through tomorrow night. Total rainfall accumulations could exceed 5 inches in some locations. With an already over-saturated ground, river and aereal flooding is likely tonight and tomorrow and flash flooding is not out of the realm of possibilities.
This is a dangerous situation. To our Southwest, portions of Southern Illinois and Southeastern Missouri have already experienced almost 12 inches of rain and are reporting record flooding. In fact we have gotten several reports of fatalities across the area.
Stay tuned to IndianaWeatherOnline.com and LetsTalkWeather.net
March 17, 2008
Flooding/Flash Flooding Likely
Flood and Flash Flood Watches have been issued for the entire state of Indiana and all of Western Ohio. The first wave of rain is developing and spreading across Illinois and Indiana as I type this, and this band has already dropped over 2 inches of rain across portions of Illinois.
Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms will continue across Indiana and Western Ohio through Wednesday Night, and with an already over-saturated ground and creeks and rivers already at or near flood stage, flooding and flash flooding is almost a certainty across the area through Wednesday Night.
To go along with the Heavy Rain and Flooding Possibility, Strong Storms will also be a possibility on Tuesday as dynamics and strong wind fields usher severe wind gusts to the surface with any thunderstorms that develop within the heavy rain field.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will also be gusty with winds gusting up to 35 mph at times.
As I said before, I fully expect that Flooding and Flash Flooding will be the main hazards. Here are some estimates as to how much rain I expect will fall across the area:
Lafayette, Kokomo, Tipton, Decatur, Celina (Ohio): 3.5-5.5"
Muncie, Anderson, Marion, Portland, Greenville: 4-6"
Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, Rushville, Shelbyville: 4.5-6.5"
Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Bloomington: 5-7"
Vincennes, Evansville, Jasper: 5.5-7.5"
Below are some links concerning this dangerous flooding situation:
Also, if you would like to join us in discussing the latest about this storm, visit www.LetsTalkWeather.net
March 14, 2008
From White to Wet
As 99% of our snow is now gone, the next 7 days will be plagued by wet weather rather than white weather. Rain will diminish by ealry afternoon today but the remainder of the day will be cloudy and dreary with mist and some fog lingering across Indiana and Western Ohio.
Rain will return, especially across Southern Indiana on Saturday. Farther North, the precipitation will be lighter, but the rain could mix with some snow. Little if any snow accumulation is expected.
The main weather story though will arrive with a deepening area of low pressure system on Monday Night and Tuesday. Heavy rain and significant flooding is a real possibility, along with the threat for severe weather. This will likely be a major storm system and will have many impacts on the area through the middle of next week.
By late next week, temperatures will likely return to below-normal values.
I will not be able to update the site again until Saturday Afternoon, as I will be out celebrating my 21st birthday tonight.
Stay tuned and stay safe,
Brandon Redmond
March 10, 2008
Sunshine You Say?
Yes, that's right, we are going to have a few nice days across the area with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures.
A southerly flow combined with a high pressure firmly in place across the Midwest, will help usher in much above-normal temperatures and keep our weather very calm, at least through late Thursday. Temperatures will climb into the 50's and even 60's across the area the next few days, so make sure you get outside and enjoy it, or for those of you who just experienced a major ice storm.....get outside and pick up all those limbs!
As far as the extended forecasts goes, it appears a very active and stormy pattern will take shape across the Ohio Valley and Midwest by Friday and continue through the weekend and early next week. It is still uncertain as to what kind of precipitation will fall with these systems, but they all have the possibility to bring significant amounts of precipitation to the area.
The first will impact the region on Friday, and looks to bring showers and even some thunderstorms to most of the state, with a chance for winter weather confined to the far Northwestern part of the state.
Another storm will impact the region on Monday and Tuesday and looks to be even stronger than the previous storm. Stay tuned!
March 07, 2008
Storm Reports - Midnight
1146 PM SNOW SEYMOUR 38.96N 85.89W
03/07/2008 E8.5 INCH JACKSON IN TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL SNOW NOW 8.5 INCHES.
1137 PM SNOW FISHERS 39.95N 86.02W
03/07/2008 M3.2 INCH HAMILTON IN MESONET
3.2 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 630 PM EST...WITH ONE INCH IN
THE LAST 45 MINUTES. REPORTED BY COCORAHS OBSERVER.
1120 PM SNOW FARMLAND 40.19N 85.13W
03/07/2008 M4.5 INCH RANDOLPH IN TRAINED SPOTTER
4.5 INCHES OF SNOW NOW ON THE GROUND.
1106 PM HEAVY SNOW NORTH VERNON 39.01N 85.63W
03/07/2008 E6.0 INCH JENNINGS IN EMERGENCY MNGR
JENNINGS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY REPORTS AN
ESTIMATED SIX INCHES OF SNOW WITH THREE TO FOUR FOOT
DRIFTS...AND MANY AREA ROADWAYS BECOMING IMPASSABLE DUE
TO DRIFTING.
1059 PM SNOW 2 ESE MUNCIE 40.19N 85.36W
03/07/2008 M3.1 INCH DELAWARE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
3.1 INCHES ON THE GROUND. 1 INCH IN THE PAST 65 MINUTES.
1056 PM SNOW 5 S SALEM 38.53N 86.10W
03/07/2008 E10.0 INCH WASHINGTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER
10 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.
1020 PM LIGHTNING HENRYVILLE 38.53N 85.77W
03/07/2008 CLARK IN BROADCAST MEDIA
THUNDERSNOW REPORTED.
Winter Storm Update - 11:00 PM
First of all, thundersnow being reported all over Northern Montgomery County and in the Dayton area.
Second of all, there are two primary bands of snowfall. The first from Louisville to Dayton which is alowly retrograding to the Northwest. The second extends from Evansville to Fort Wayne and is moving East. Both bands are currently producing snowfall rates of over an inch per hour, and as the bands merge over Southern and Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio, extremely intense snowfall rates will be possible as the band will become stationary for several hours. The heaviest snow will fall from Louisville through Celina, Ohio through 4:00 AM.
NowCast - 9:15 PM
Winter Storm Update - 9:00 PM
Snow is redeveloping across the area and will become heavy at times. The heaviest snow will fall just East of a line from Evansville to Indianapolis to Fort Wayne. I am noticing some convective elements developing, and some lightning strikes and thundersnow are possible.
Winds are howling here as of 9:00 PM and will create full-blown blizzard conditions overnight and on Saturday. Blowing and drifting will create extremely hazardous road conditions and many roads will become impassible.
Blizzard Warning
INZ050-058-059-OHZ034-035-042-080430-
/O.CAN.KILN.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080308T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.BZ.W.0001.080307T2025Z-080308T2100Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE
325 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008
..BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY
..WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL HIT AS A ONE TWO PUNCH.
THE INITIAL PUNCH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW
INTENSITY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. BEFORE
THE STORM ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...YOU CAN EXPECT 8 TO 11 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CAUSE EXTREME WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
CAUSING WHITEOUT...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
REMEMBER...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY.
/O.CAN.KILN.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080308T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.BZ.W.0001.080307T2025Z-080308T2100Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE
325 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008
..BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY
..WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL HIT AS A ONE TWO PUNCH.
THE INITIAL PUNCH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW
INTENSITY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. BEFORE
THE STORM ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...YOU CAN EXPECT 8 TO 11 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CAUSE EXTREME WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
CAUSING WHITEOUT...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
REMEMBER...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY.
Blizzard Conditions
Blizzard Conditions will develop across portions of Randolph, Jay, Mercer, Darke, Shelby (Ohio), Miami (Ohio), Montgomery (Ohio), Preble (Ohio), Wayne and Henry Counties by late this evening and overnight tonight. Heavy snow will continue overnight with winds gusting to 40 mph at times. Extreme blowing and drifting will be likely and whiteout conditions and blizzard conditons will be likely in rual areas. Many roadways will likely become impassible by overnight tonight.
Updated Snowfall Forecast - 2:30 PM
NowCast - 2:00 PM
Winter Storm Update - 1:15 PM
Heavy snow is falling across Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio and especially across Henry and Randolph Counties. Bedford Indiana has already reported 4.5 inches of new snowfall with this impressive band of snow that will become stationary for several hours across Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio.
Winter Storm Update - Noon
The radar image above shows where the heaviest snow is currently falling and where it will move during the next 2-3 hours. Snowfall rates will continue to increase and road conditions will continue to worsen.
NowCast - 11:00 AM
Winter Storm Update - 10:20 AM
Heavy snow is developing across the area and it has started snowing here in Randolph County. Snow will continue for the next several hours, and several inches of snow accumulation is possible by 3:00 PM.
There will be a brief break in the precipitation before snow redevelops this evening and continues through Saturday.
Winds will gust to 40 MPH at times and will create blowing and drifting which could cause whiteout conditions and blizzard conditions by this evening.
March 06, 2008
Brand New Radar
IndianaWeatherOnline.com has once again added yet another feature, our brand new Winter Mosaic Precision StormTracker Doppler Radar.
This radar is still in testing, and we are looking for comments as to whether you like the new radar!
To view our brand new Precision StormTracker Doppler Radar, click on the link below:
Tomorrow's Snow Storm - Evening Update
It still appears a considerable snow event is on the way. The most likely areas for heavy snow will be East and South of Indianapolis and across all of Western Ohio.
Winter precipitation is already developing across parts of Arkansas and Southern Missouri. This area will continue to expand and move Northeast towards the Ohio Valley. Snow will likely be falling by as early as 9:00 AM tomorrow morning across the area and will become heavier as the day progresses. There will likely be a brief break tomorrow evening before round number 2 of the heavy snowfall arrives by late tomorrow night and into the day on Tuesday.
Winds will also be strong across the area, with winds gusting as high as 40 mph. This will create considerable blowing and drifting along with whiteout/blizzard conditions.
Total snowfall accumulations will arrive in the double-digits by Saturday Evening for areas East and South of Indianapolis and across Western Ohio.
Largest Snow Event of the Season
The largest snow event of the season is likely across the Eastern and Southern parts of Indiana and Western Ohio on Friday and Saturday. A strong low pressure system will ride Northeast along a stalled frontal boundary that will extend through Northern Kentucky.
Heavy snow will develop by early Friday Morning across the area and continue through the day on Friday and into Saturday. Some sleet may mix in aross far Southeastern Indiana south of Decatur County. Snowfall rates could be quite high at times, with as much as 1-2 inches falling per hour.
As the system strengthens and approaches the Ohio Valley, significant winds will also accompany the snow, and significant blowing and drifting is likely. Blizzard Conditions will be possible.
Total snowfall accumulations will be in the double-digits across a large portion of the area.
Stay tuned to IndianaWeatherOnline.com
March 05, 2008
Major Snow Event Friday
Yes, if you haven't already heard yet, I am predicting a major snow storm across the Eastern and Southern parts of Indiana and Western Ohio on Friday. A boundary will stall out across portions of Kentucky and extend Southwest into Oklahoma. It appears that several areas of low pressure will travel along the front and provide the area with some very heavy snowfall beginning early Friday Morning and continuing into early Saturday.
With temperatures being colder than we've seen with any other storm, the "fluff factor" or liquid to snow ratios could be much higher, which will just enhance snowfall totals.
I think as much as a foot of snow if not more could fall across areas East of a line from Evansville to Indianapolis to Fort Wayne. West of that line, 2-4 inches will be possible across the Northwestern and Western parts of Indiana.
March 04, 2008
Weather Update - 7:45 PM
As far as tonight goes, I still feel like conditions as far as utility lines goes will get worse before it gets better. Snow is rapidly developing across Central Indiana with 2-3 inches of snow possible across Central Indiana and 3-6 inches of snow possible farther North. This combined with winds which will pick up and gust to 40 mph overnight will add extra burden and weight on utility lines, so more downed lines are possible.
We are watching another storm system that could affect the area on Thursday and a larger one for Saturday, but more on those tomorrow, for now lets get through this storm!
Ice Storm Update - 5:15 PM
It appears the back end of the precipitation may be getting a little closer. It looks like we will see another 1-2 hours of this heavy freezing rain and sleet before the precipitation begins to lighten across the area.
Another batch of precipitation will likely develop later this evening and could bring another round of freezing rain, sleet and snow to the area with snowfall accumulations possible North of Interstate 70.
There are numerous reports of power outages, powerlines and trees down and transformers on fire across the area. This is a dangerous situation, so if you can just stay home tonight!
Ice Storm Update - 3:45 PM
Getting widespread reports of power lines and trees down across the area. Heavy freezing rain will continue across the area for the next several hours, and with thunder and lightning embedded in this area of precipitation, precipitation rates will be enhanced across the area.
It looks like there will be a brief break across the area later this evening before snow fills back in across the area.
Local Storm Reports
0255 PM FREEZING RAIN WEST TERRE HAUTE 39.46N 87.45W
03/04/2008 E0.00 INCH VIGO IN AMATEUR RADIO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING TO COVER GROUND. POWER
OUT TO 1100 RESIDENTS IN WEST TERRE HAUTE.
0255 PM SLEET 2 SE BROWNSBURG 39.82N 86.37W
03/04/2008 E0.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
SLEET ACCUMULATING TO 0.25 INCHES.
03/04/2008 E0.00 INCH VIGO IN AMATEUR RADIO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING TO COVER GROUND. POWER
OUT TO 1100 RESIDENTS IN WEST TERRE HAUTE.
0255 PM SLEET 2 SE BROWNSBURG 39.82N 86.37W
03/04/2008 E0.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
SLEET ACCUMULATING TO 0.25 INCHES.
Local Storm Reports
0242 PM SLEET TERRE HAUTE 39.47N 87.38W
03/04/2008 E0.25 INCH VIGO IN PUBLIC
HEAVY SLEET WITH THUNDER. STARTING TO STICK ON ROADS.
03/04/2008 E0.25 INCH VIGO IN PUBLIC
HEAVY SLEET WITH THUNDER. STARTING TO STICK ON ROADS.
Local Storm Reports
0150 PM HAIL GREENSBURG 39.34N 85.48W
03/04/2008 E0.25 INCH DECATUR IN CO-OP OBSERVER
PEA TO MARBLE SIZE.
0200 PM FREEZING RAIN 8 W INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.30W
03/04/2008 E0.00 INCH MARION IN NWS EMPLOYEE
ICE ON TREES AND POWER LINES. THERE ARE ALSO POWER
OUTAGES.
Also now have powerlines down and arching on State Route 227 at 600 South in Randolph County.
Ice Storm Update - 2:00 PM
As of 2:00 PM, I am getting reports of power outages in Northwestern Wayne County and in Northeastern Henry County. Precipitation is really intensitying across the Southern half of the state, and I believe conditions will only get worse across the area! Temperatures are down to 29 here and 28 in Muncie, also the lower 30's across portions of Northern Wayne County.
As far as road conditions, am getting reports of numerous accidents across Delaware, Madison and Darke County, Ohio. Also am getting reports of roads under water in Darke County due to the flooding.
Local Storm Reports
1225 PM FREEZING RAIN FISHERS 39.95N 86.02W
03/04/2008 E0.00 INCH HAMILTON IN NWS EMPLOYEE
ICE RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING ON TREES AND POWER LINES SINCE
1130 AM. NO ICE ON THE GROUND AT THIS TIME.
1245 PM FREEZING RAIN ALEXANDRIA 40.26N 85.68W
03/04/2008 M0.15 INCH MADISON IN OFFICIAL NWS OBS
ICE ACCUMULATING BOTH ON GROUND AND TREES AND POWER
LINES. SHEET OF ICE ON SIDE OF HOUSE. WINDS GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH.
03/04/2008 E0.00 INCH HAMILTON IN NWS EMPLOYEE
ICE RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING ON TREES AND POWER LINES SINCE
1130 AM. NO ICE ON THE GROUND AT THIS TIME.
1245 PM FREEZING RAIN ALEXANDRIA 40.26N 85.68W
03/04/2008 M0.15 INCH MADISON IN OFFICIAL NWS OBS
ICE ACCUMULATING BOTH ON GROUND AND TREES AND POWER
LINES. SHEET OF ICE ON SIDE OF HOUSE. WINDS GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH.
Thunderstorms?!?
Yes Thunderstorms, an area of widespread thunderstorms have developed South of I-70 with plenty of lightning and even some small hail! This will only enhance the freezing rain and sleet as the thunderstorms move into the colder air North of I-70!
Each one of those lightning strikes, indicates a lightning strike in the last 5 minutes!
Ice Storm Update - 12:30 PM
We continue to get freezing rain here with temperatures hovering right around 30. We have gotten multiple reports of widespread power outages in Hamilton County in the Fishers area and also some in Southeastern Randolph County. Precipitation continues to back-build across Southern Indiana and in fact we have severe thunderstorm warnings and flash flood warnings in effect for areas just North of Louisville.
Latest Power Outages
Here is a link that you can visit to view the latest power outages across Central Indiana. They definitely have continued to increase over the past several hours.
http://www.duke-energy.com/externaldata/midwestoutages/maps/PSImap.htm
Ice Storm Update - 11:15 AM
I will try to keep updates coming as long as possible, however we have already lost power once here at the IndianaWeatherOnline.com headquarters and continue to have surges. Temperautres have fallen to below 30 degrees here in Randolph County and rapid ice accretion is in progress. With copious amounts of moisture still available across the area, I truely feel that for areas North of Interstate 70 the situation will only get worse before it gets better. If you have any reports or observations from your area, feel free to email me at webmaster@indianaweatheronline.com. I will be providing updates as often as possible throughout the afternoon, providing I keep power.
March 03, 2008
Evening Update
Temperatures are looking colder and colder across the area, and much colder than earlier forecast models predicted. Temperatures are already down to 35 in Muncie, 34 in Lafayette and 36 in Indianapolis. Here at IndianaWeatherOnline.com we are down to 35.6 degrees and the temperatures have fallen over 6 degrees in the last 3 hours!
I still fully expect a major ice storm across the Northern half of the state of Indiana and still expect the heaviest ice to fall from Noblesville to Muncie to Greenville, Ohio. As much as an inch of ice may accumulate, and that may be on the conservative side!
Farther South along Interstate 70 and areas such as Indianapolis and Richmond, the colder air is moving farther South much quicker, and I definitely expect freezing rain to develop by tomorrow morning in your areas. Between a quarter and a half inch of ice is expected.
The far Northern parts of the state will see a sleet and snow mix and could see 3-6 inches of a combined sleet/snow accumulation.
Flooding will continue with plenty more precipitation on the way! Flooding could be extreme across parts of the Central and Southern aprt of the state.
Precipitation will change to all snow by Tuesday Afternoon for areas along and North of Interstate 70 and in fact, our latest forecast models are indicating the potential for several more inches by Tuesday Evening!
Stay tuned and definitely stay safe!
March 02, 2008
Midnight Update
The only change I have to the forecast this evening is to extend the threat for freezing rain ever-so-slightly farther South. Our new guidance has come in a little colder and brings a freeing rain threat as far South as Shelbyville. I still believe the heaviest and most significant ice accumulations will occur just North of Interstate 70 from Noblesville to Muncie over to Greenville, Ohio.
So many of you have asked how forecasters tell what type of winter precipitation will fall? Well we use skew-t's and thickness soundings.
Above is the latest skew-t for Muncie. The bottom white line (1000) is the surface. Notice the temperature (white line) is slightly below zero degrees celsius, about 29 degrees. But as you go higher in the atmosphere the white line (temperature in the upper layers of the atmosphere) gets warmer than 0 degrees celcius/32 degrees F. Thus, the precipitation that starts to fall as snow, melts, and becomes rain. When it reaches the surface, temperatures are below freezing and thus you get freezing rain.
Ice Storm/Flash Flooding
The next 36 hours are going to be very active as far as the weather is concerned across Indiana and Western Ohio. Heavy rain will get going by late morning on Monday. For that reason, every single county in Indiana and most of Western Ohio is under a Flood or a Flash Flood Watch.
By tomorrow night, the cold front will swing through the area bringing a shallow cold air mass with it, thus setting the stage for freezing rain and a major ice storm. It looks like areas North of Interstate 70 could see some major icing, with the most significant icing occuring along a corridor from Crawfordsville to Noblesville over to Muncie and Greenville, Ohio.
Between a half inch and an inch of ice accumulation is likely and this will cause damage to trees and powerlines. As the heavy freezing rain continues, it will only continue to aggrivate the flooding situation.
All I can say is Stay Tuned!
A Storm With Big Impacts
It appears a major winter storm will impact parts of the area Monday into Tuesday. This storm will have multiple hazards, and I am going to try to hi-lite each of those hazards and what areas they will impact.
The first will be the potential for flooding. This system is going to bring copious amounts of moisture into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Our latest forecast guidance shows that most of the state could receive over 3 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation if not as much as 6 inches! This combined with the snow melt and already over-saturated grounds could create a dangerous flooding situation.
It looks like rain will develop during the day on Monday and could be heavy at times across the entire state. A cold front will march through Indiana in the early afternoon hours and as the cold front moves across the state from Northwest to Southeast, a few thunderstorms could develop along the front.
As the front moves through the area it appears Arctic air will flood into the area and this air will surge under an already powerful warm air mass that will be in place across a large portion of Central Indiana. With plenty of moisture redeveloping behind the cold front as a secondary low pressure forms in Arkansas, this will set the stage for what could be a major ice storm for Central Indiana with a sleet and snow threat across Northern Indiana.
The most significant ice accumulations are likely from Crawfordsville to Noblesville over to Muncie, Winchester and Greenville. I think there is a definite possibility of at least a half inch of ice accumulation and that could be very conservative. One row of counties farther South including the Terre Haute, Indianapolis and Richmond areas will likely see lighter ice amounts, but could see up to a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation.
Farther North from Lafayette to Fort Wayne the potential exists for some major sleet and snow accumulations. Sleet will likely cut down on snowfall amounts, but 3-6 inches of combined snow and sleet is possible.
Finally across far Northern Indiana including South Bend, snow will be the predominant precipitation type and 6-10 inches if not more of snow will fall.
For all of you South of Interstate 70, you should escape any risk of winter weather but will likely be impacted by very heavy rain and even some thunderstorms and as I said before the potential for flooding.
This is a very powerful storm system and will likely have a significant impact on the entire area. I would look for winter storm watches and flood watches to be issued by the National Weather Service Offices this afternoon.
March 01, 2008
Time To Build An Ark
Ok, while that might be a little extreme, a significant heavy rain event and potential extreme flooding event is likely on Monday and Tuesday. A strong low pressure system and associated cold front will affect the area late Sunday Night and into the day on Monday. With the low pressure system having a direct feed of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico along with plenty of lift and even some elevated instability, it appears a significant and prolonged period of heavy rainfall is looking more and more likely. Some of our latest forecast models have been indicating as much as 4-6 and even 7 inches of liquid precipitation with this storm. While I think that might be overdone, as much as 4 or 5 inches of liquid is definitely a possibility. That combined with an already over-saturated ground and some existing snowpack will set the stage for a major flooding event.
The National Weather Service out of Northern Indiana has already issued *Flash Flood Watches* for the Northern third of the state, and I expect other National Weather Service Offices to jump on board with watches later today.
The other weather story we are following is the potential for a major snow storm behind the rain event on Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The latest forecast models are indicating a second area of low pressure developing and tracking through Kentucky and Northeast towards Wheeling, West Virginia. This would cause a deformation zone/forced trowal to develop across a large part of the state and would set the stage for heavy snow.
Some problems for accumulating snow though will be a very wet ground and warmer ground temperatures. But that might be able to be overcome by extremely heavy snowfall rates. At this point, I am thinking the heaviest snowfall will fall from Evansville to Indianapolis to Fort Wayne and points Northwest. For those areas, I could see as much as 6 or 8 inches of snow falling. Farther East in areas like Muncie and Richmond and all of Western Ohio, sleet and freezing rain could cut down on snowfall amounts but I am thinking at this point 3-5 inches of snow could accumulate.
Finally, this system is going to be "bombing" out or strenghtening as it moves Northeast, which means a considerable wind event is likely across the area. Winds throughout the event could gust as high as 45 mph which is not good news for the areas that receive the heavy snowfall.
I will be posting another update later today, so please check back for more information!
February 28, 2008
Looking Ahead to Early Next Week
By early next Monday and continuing into Tuesday, two storm systems will affect the area. Wth the primary low/frontal passage, it looks like some accumulating snows would be possible from Eastern Iowa, far Northeastern Missouri, Northern Illinois, Southern and Eastern Wisconsin, far Northwestern Indiana and Western and Southwestern Michigan. Could be along the line of 2-4 inches with an area of sleet or freezing rain. Across most of Indiana and Western Ohio, we will remain the warm sector and will likely showers and thunderstorms.
As the boundary pushes through the area it stalls and allows a secondary area of low pressure to ride up the boundary. The first storm and passage of the boundary will have caused a much colder airmass to move into the Midwest and Ohio Valley as a strong high pressure system slides Southeast into the North Central Plains.
It looks like the boundary will stall from about Mephis up to Cleveland with heavy rain continuing East and Southeast of the boundary with a conditional severe weather threat. To the Northwest and North of the boundary, snow develops from Northern Arkansas, Western Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Western and Northwestern Ohio and possibly into Michigan. Of course the potential will be there for some gusy winds as the system strenghens and slides Northeast.
February 26, 2008
Preview: Looking Ahead
While I plan on taking a few hours off this afternoon as the weather has me a little stressed out right now there is still more to talk about. I don't remember a winter where I have had to forecast major storms every few days for months. It has just been crazy and the abnormally strong La Nina has made it almost impossible to get a storm right.
But what am I watching for the future?
Significant Lake effect snow for tonight through tomorrow for Northwestern Indiana.
As far as future storms, a strong clipper is still expected to affect a large portion of Northern and Northeastern Indiana into Western Ohio by Thursday Night and Friday. Still looks like 2-3 maybe 4 inches of snowfall is possible.
A strong storm traveling through the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday could bring another round of snow especially across the Northwestern half of the state with the Eastern and Central part of the state likely seeing rain changing to some accumulating snowfall.
Another storm by next Thursday looks to have a better chance at bringing significant snowfall to a large portion of the Ohio Valley.
But what am I watching for the future?
Significant Lake effect snow for tonight through tomorrow for Northwestern Indiana.
As far as future storms, a strong clipper is still expected to affect a large portion of Northern and Northeastern Indiana into Western Ohio by Thursday Night and Friday. Still looks like 2-3 maybe 4 inches of snowfall is possible.
A strong storm traveling through the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday could bring another round of snow especially across the Northwestern half of the state with the Eastern and Central part of the state likely seeing rain changing to some accumulating snowfall.
Another storm by next Thursday looks to have a better chance at bringing significant snowfall to a large portion of the Ohio Valley.
Can we say bust!
Yes, I'll admit that my forecast was a "bust" especially South of a line from Lafayette to Portland to Celina, Ohio. Temperatures remained to marginal for to long and the precip for whatever reason didn't cause enough dynamical/evaporational cooling. For all of you North of a line from Lafayette to Portland, enjoy your snow as the forecast in your areas verified quite well.
I can say though that I had the idea right, forecasting this storm last Thursday, while no one even began talking about it until late in the day on Sunday.
So now I plan on taking the afternoon off to be depressed about my wrong forecast and will be back this evening. Just a quick FYI, the pattern still looks stormy and winter is not over yet.
Latest Storm Reports
0941 AM SNOW OSSIAN 40.88N 85.17W
02/26/2008 M5.8 INCH WELLS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0700 AM SNOW 1 SSW MILLERSBURG 41.51N 85.70W
02/26/2008 M8.2 INCH ELKHART IN COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW 2 ESE HUNTERTOWN 41.22N 85.13W
02/26/2008 M6.0 INCH ALLEN IN COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW 2 SW LA PORTE 41.59N 86.74W
02/26/2008 M5.1 INCH LA PORTE IN COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW KENDALLVILLE 41.44N 85.26W
02/26/2008 M6.5 INCH NOBLE IN COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW 5 E LEESBURG 41.33N 85.75W
02/26/2008 M8.0 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN COCORAHS
900 AM SNOW ROCHESTER 41.06N 86.20W
02/26/2008 M8.6 INCH FULTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0851 AM HEAVY SNOW LAGRANGE 41.64N 85.42W
02/26/2008 M6.0 INCH LAGRANGE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0700 AM SNOW 6 ESE NORTH JUDSON 41.18N 86.67W
02/26/2008 M7.0 INCH STARKE IN COCORAHS
Morning Update
So far this winter storm has done quite well for areas along and North of a line from Lafayette to Marion over to Portland and points Northward.
I know a lot of you farther South, especially along the Interstate 70 corridor, and this was because of warmer temperatures last night that caused the precipitation to fall as mostly rain. Snow has filled in across the entire area and has became heavy for areas North of Interstate 70 and will continue through the early evening hours. The snow could become quite heavy at times and I still feel that some descent accumulations are possible from Lafayette to Tipton over to Muncie and Greenville.
So far many areas my forecast has done very well so far, and for you snow lovers that have received little snow so far, just be patient, as the snow is still filling in back West.
Latest Trends
I know a lot of you are worried because you might changed over to light rain when you had snow earlier. You can take a sigh of relief! Remember for one, I didn't expect the snow to get started until around 5:00 or 6:00 AM, so we are already ahead of schedule.
I expect temperatures to continue to drop, especially as heavier precipitation moves and causes dynamic/evaporational cooling. Temperatures will fluctuate for a few hours, but will ultimately drop below freezing by the early morning hours for most areas North of Interstate 70.
It could take a few hours longer right along Interstate 70, and that is why I am forecasting 3-5 inches for those areas.
Wabash County is already reporting 3 inches of snowfall, which would correlate with my highest snowfall band.
Really no changes in the forecast. I do think thundersnow is likely tonight, so make sure you email me if you experience thundersnow!
February 25, 2008
Latest Official NWS Snowfall Reports
1025 PM SNOW LA PORTE 41.61N 86.71W
02/25/2008 M1.1 INCH LA PORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
1.1 INCHES TOTAL OVER PAST 3 HOURS. DID BEGIN AS SOME
SLEET.
1019 PM SNOW 2 N NORTH WEBSTER 41.35N 85.70W
02/25/2008 M1.0 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN OFFICIAL NWS OBS
ONE INCH OF SNOW SO FAR.
1013 PM SNOW AKRON 41.04N 86.02W
02/25/2008 M1.0 INCH FULTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER
9 TENTHS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN PAST HOUR. STORM TOTAL OF 1
INCH SO FAR
0959 PM SNOW NORTH MANCHESTER 41.00N 85.77W
02/25/2008 M1.3 INCH WABASH IN TRAINED SPOTTER
1.3 INCHES OVER THE PAST HOUR
Latest Update from NWS Northern Indiana
Here is the latest update from the NWS Northern Indiana for areas South of Fort Wayne.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1024 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS NEARLY COMPLETE...WITH
ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AROUND LIMA OHIO
STILL SHOWING A MIX IN OBS. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW REGIONWIDE BY 1 OR 2 AM EST. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
SET UP. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD FALL
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME WHERE
FORCING APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALSO LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP POSSIBLY RESULTING IN 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.
INZ006>009-017-018-025>027-032>034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-261130-
/O.CON.KIWX.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080227T0000Z/
LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-
ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...
PORTLAND...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...
VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1024 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS NEARLY COMPLETE...WITH
ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AROUND LIMA OHIO
STILL SHOWING A MIX IN OBS. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW REGIONWIDE BY 1 OR 2 AM EST. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9
INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 5 TO 9 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
SET UP. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD FALL
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME WHERE
FORCING APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION...OR FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
9:00 (21:00) Surface Observations
Here are the 9:00 PM surface observations for Indiana from the offical National Weather Service reporting stations. Note that everywhere North of Bloomington is now reporting snow, and with intense precipitation rates, I suspect that this is forcing the precipitation to change to snow and or a wintry mix. With dynamic/evaporational cooling taking place, it is likely that temperatures will continue to drop through the night.
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR INDIANA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
900 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY. REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT
AVAILABLE FROM KOKOMO AND HUNTINGBURG.
INZ001>027-260300-
NORTHERN INDIANA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GARY /AIRPORT/ LGT SNOW 36 34 93 CALM 29.77F
VALPARAISO LGT SNOW 32 30 92 E5 29.77F FOG WCI 27
SOUTH BEND LGT SNOW 32 29 88 SE3 29.79S FOG
GOSHEN LGT SNOW 32 30 93 E3 29.79S FOG
WARSAW LGT RAIN 32 30 93 E6 29.77F WCI 26
FORT WAYNE LGT SNOW 32 29 88 E6 29.80F FOG WCI 26
PERU/GRISSOM CLOUDY 32 31 96 SE12 29.76F WCI 23
INZ028>059-064-065-260300-
CENTRAL INDIANA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
LAFAYETTE LGT SNOW 34 30 85 SE7 29.76F FOG WCI 28
KOKOMO CLOUDY 36 28 75 SE13 29.75F
MUNCIE CLOUDY 33 30 88 SE5 29.79F FOG WCI 29
INDIANAPOLIS SLEET 33 31 92 SE8 29.76S FOG WCI 26
-EAGLE CREEK LGT SNOW 33 30 88 SE8 29.77F FOG WCI 26
TERRE HAUTE LGT RAIN 34 30 86 E8 29.75F FOG WCI 27
SHELBYVILLE LGT SNOW 33 31 92 S3 29.78R FOG
COLUMBUS CLOUDY 32 32 100 NE7 29.78F FOG WCI 26
INZ060>063-066>092-260300-
SOUTHERN INDIANA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BLOOMINGTON LGT SNOW 34 30 86 CALM 29.76R FOG
HUNTINGBURG CLOUDY 37 37 100 SE6 29.73F
EVANSVILLE LGT RAIN 41 37 86 E9 29.68F FOG
9:30 PM Update
Just thought I would pass on some reports I am getting in to IndianaWeatherOnline.com and LetsTalkWeather.net
- Report of a glaze of ice on surfaces at Indianapolis.
- Report out of Lapel of moderate snowfall
- Adams/Allen County line: Dusting of new snowfall
- Snow falling in Blackford County
Blizzard-Like Conditions?
Just a quick note, have been following temperatures really closely, and it has became apparent that as the precipitation has started to fall across Central and Western Indiana, evaporational cooling has set in. In fact since 6:00 PM, Indianapolis has went from 36 degrees to 33 degrees.
Many locations across Central Indiana reporting a wintry mix already and the latest short-term model, the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) is forecasting 3-4 inches of snow by 5:00 AM in the Lafayette and Kokomo areas with 1-2 inches already on the ground from Muncie to Richmond over to Greenville. That is definitely ahead of schedule.
The low pressure system is currently located near the Northern Arkansas/Tenn border, which definitely verifies my thoughts that this storm would take a more Southern track. I look for the storm to eject back Northeast into Northeastern Kentucky by tomorrow and that means an increase in snow and winds across Indiana and Ohio.
I would not be surprised if widespread blizzard-like conditions develop by late tomorrow morning through the evening. Will this be a full-blown blizzard? I am not sure yet, but I'm working on it and will be providing a full analysis later tonight.
Many locations across Central Indiana reporting a wintry mix already and the latest short-term model, the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) is forecasting 3-4 inches of snow by 5:00 AM in the Lafayette and Kokomo areas with 1-2 inches already on the ground from Muncie to Richmond over to Greenville. That is definitely ahead of schedule.
The low pressure system is currently located near the Northern Arkansas/Tenn border, which definitely verifies my thoughts that this storm would take a more Southern track. I look for the storm to eject back Northeast into Northeastern Kentucky by tomorrow and that means an increase in snow and winds across Indiana and Ohio.
I would not be surprised if widespread blizzard-like conditions develop by late tomorrow morning through the evening. Will this be a full-blown blizzard? I am not sure yet, but I'm working on it and will be providing a full analysis later tonight.
Winter Storm Update
A major winter storm still looks to affect the area tonight and into the day on Tuesday. In fact, the National Weather Service has issued *Winter Storm Warnings* for many areas across Northern and Eastern Indiana.
Here is the latest Winter Storm Warning statements from the National Weather Service out of Northern Indiana.
205
WWUS43 KIWX 252150
WSWIWX
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
450 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
SET UP.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALSO LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP POSSIBLY RESULTING IN 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.
INZ005-012>016-020-022>024-260600-
/O.UPG.KIWX.WS.A.0004.080226T0000Z-080227T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0011.080226T0000Z-080226T2100Z/
ELKHART-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKHART...GOSHEN...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...
ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER
450 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008 /350 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/
TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM
CST/ TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
SET UP.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION...OR FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
INZ006>009-017-018-025>027-032>034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-260600-
/O.UPG.KIWX.WS.A.0004.080226T0000Z-080227T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0011.080226T0300Z-080227T0000Z/
LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-
ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...
PORTLAND...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...
VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
450 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH WILL DETERMINE THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK
CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
SET UP.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION...OR FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
I really have no changes to the forecast. This will be a major winter storm and will have major implications across the area.
Localized Eastern Indiana/Western Ohio Map
Morning Update
While I have little no support from any other local meteorologists, I still have confidence that accumulating snow will develop tonight and that the snow storm could be major for areas North of Interstate 70 all the way to the Michigan line.
Light rain will develop tonight and I look for a changeover to snow to begin across Northwest and West Central Indiana by 4:00 am. As the freezing line sweeps Southeast across the area, I look for rain to change to snow across all of Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio by 7:00 AM.
Snow will continue through the day on Tuesday and will likely become quite heavy through the morning and afternoon hours and I actually expect the snow to continue into the evening and possibly overnight hours as a deformation zone/throwal develops across Central Indiana and Western Ohio.
Snowfall rates on Tuesday could be quite heavy with rates approaching 1-2 inches hours at times in the height of the storm. The other big story is that as the low pressure system strengthens, winds will increase and blowing and drifting will become a major story. In fact, I expect that winds could gust to 45 mph across the Northeastern half of Indiana and all of Western Ohio and this could create whiteout conditions to near blizzard conditions at time.
Total snowfall accumulations will range from 2-4 inches across Terre Haute, Indianapolis, Crawfordsville and Noblesville.
Farther Northwest 4-6 inches is likely at Lafayette, Tipton, Kokomo, Anderson, Logansport and Delphi.
Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, New Castle, and Eaton (Ohio) will see 3-5 inches.
Dayton (Ohio) will see 2-3 inches.
Winchester, Muncie, Portland, Marion Huntington, Decatur, Berne, Greenville (Ohio), Sidney (Ohio), and Celina (Ohio) will see 4-7 inches.
Gary to South Bend over to Fort Wayne will see 6-10 inches.
Here is my forecast map concerning the progression of the freezing line tonight.
Once again today, I have doctors appointments in Dayton all day, so I doubt I get a chance to send out another update before I leave, but I will be taking my laptop so that I can send out email updates and at least update the blog.
February 24, 2008
Major Winter Storm Heading Towards Indiana/Ohio
It appears a major winter storm will impact the Northern half of Indiana and Ohio late Monday Night and into the day on Tuesday and even early Wednesday. A low pressure system will move into far Northern Kentucky and then into East Central Ohio by Tuesday Night. As the system moves East it will also strengthen and get wound up adding extremely strong winds to the mix with this storm.
It still appears that light rain will begin to fall late tomorrow night and into the early morning hours on Tuesday. The main winter event will get going during the day on Tuesday as heavy snow begins to fall, especially North of Interstate 70. Snowfall rates could exceed an inch per hour and with the latest models indicating some elevated instability, some convective elements will be possible with the snowfall, which means that thundersnow would be a possibility. Any areas that receive thundersnow, could easily see 2 or 3 inches of snow within an hour.
As the day wears on Tuesday, the freezing line will progess Southeast and it appears that areas South of Interstate 70 could change to some light to moderate snow.
A deformation zone/trowal develops by Tuesday Afternoon over Central and Northern Indiana and this would bring heavy snow back to the area.
As winds increase throughout the day, travel conditions will become very hazardous as blowing and drifting becomes a major issue. With the possibility of winds gusting up to 45 mph, blizzard conditions are definitely possible across the Northern half of Indiana and Ohio.
Snowfall accumulations could easily climb to well over 6 inches of snow for many areas with isolated areas in Northern Indiana seeing up to or over a foot of snow.
I will send out an update early Monday Morning with updated snowfall accumulation forecasts, so stay tuned!
What La Nina means for the severe weather season
La Niña is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon similar to El Niño. During a period of La Niña, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 0.5 °C. In the United States, an episode of La Niña is defined as a period of at least 5 months of La Niña conditions.
So far during the end of 2007 and early 2008, La Nina has been extremely strong, likely the cuase of our extreme weather patterns so far this Winter. La Nina traditionally causes the Great Lakes, Plains and Midwest to experience much colder and snowier winters. With La Nina currently strenghening, I still expect and that is why I have been forecasting the next 2-4 weeks to be the worst we have seen so far this winter.
Now wth La Nina remaining strong through the Spring, I expect a volatile severe weather season across the Eastern half of the United States, at least through May.
We have already seen unprecidented severe weather outbreaks this year with the major tornado outbreak across portions of Tenn, Kentucky and Arkansas back in February and with Indiana seeing tornadoes in both the months of January and February for the first time in decades.
La Nina typically provides a split flow jet-stream, with the Northern branch and the Pacific/Southern Branch. This type of pattern set-up causes strong storms to develop along the Southern branch and clash with colder air and often times phase with systems on the Northern branch of the jet-stream. This in turn causes significant severe weather outbreaks out ahead of the weather systems. So get ready as severe weather season is almost here.
Weather Roller Coaster for the next 24 hours
Well a wild 48 hours of weather is on the way to portions of Indiana and Ohio. Here are just some quick hi-lites:
- Dense fog possible tonight through Monday Morning
- Above normal temperatures on Monday but they won't last long
- Major storm system to impact the area Monday Night and Tuesday
- Light rain changes to heavy snow
- Accumulations likely North of Interstate 70
- Strong winds gust to 45 mph could cause blizzard like conditions at times
- Brief break in the weather for Wednesday
- Clipper brings snow back to the area Thursday
- Another storm system could bring winter weather to the area by next weekend!
Stay tuned for a more detailed update here in the next couple of hours!
Early Projections for Sunday Night/Monday
First, a quick note about this mornings surprise snowfall, the low pressure system is finally starting to wind down and weaken a tad, but areas South of Indianapolis could still get some light snow and up to an inch through the early morning hours, no other changes.
Now with the storm for Monday Night and Tuesday, I have no changes. I still expect the storm to take a Farther South track and there are a lot of models that are trending that way (towards a Southern Solution) and that support my forecast. In fact the new NAM (North American Forecast Model) show a really descent snowfall event across portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Right now, I expect the best potential for accumulating snow to fall across the Northern half of Indiana and the Northern half of Ohio (generally North of Interstate 70). I think someone could see well over 8 inches of snowfall from this storm, probably closer to the Michigan border, but there will be a large area of 3-6 inches across most of the Northern half of Indiana. Remember that these are my early projections for this storm, and things could change but we are getting closer by the second and I do think that the National Weather Service will probably start issuing watches later today.
Just a quick FYI, we will have a better idea of what this storm will do later today as the forecast models ingest data from surface observations on the West Coast.
Surprise Snowfall?
A strong upper level low pressure is currently tracking through parts of Missouri and will impact parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day on Sunday. While earlier forecasts showed this being a much weaker system, the storm has became a strong but very compact upper level storm system.
Some moderate snowfall has been falling across parts of Missouri and some areas have already received over 4 inches of snowfall! I do think the precipitation will weaken some as it moves towards the Ohio Valley, but a quick dusting to inch of snowfall will be possible through the morning hours with the best chances for accumulating snow being across Southern and Southeastern Indiana.
Also watch out this morning for some patchy dense fog, especially in Western Indiana.
I will be doing another update shortly concerning the potential snow storm Monday Night and Tuesday!
February 23, 2008
Winter In Full Swing
First of all welcome to our brand new IndianaWeatherOnline.com Discussion Blog. Yes, we have upgraded our Discussion page to the 21st Century and have converted the format to a blog joining the rest of the world!
Now on to the weather! It appears that a very cold and wintry pattern is taking hold of the Ohio Valley and Midwest, especially for the next two to four weeks.
La Nina continues to stengthen and thus I expect a strong trough to develop across the Central and Eastern United States. The tough will keep the Ohio Valley and the Midwest locked in a winter pattern with Arctic air intruding Southward from Canada. This combined with a split-flow developing (two jet streams) will put the Ohio Valley and Midwest in a favorable area for winter storms.
The first storm we will be watching is a storm system that is currently developing across the West Coast. The low pressure system we are tracking hasn’t quite made it to the West Coast yet, but will later this evening and will move Southeast towards the Central Rockies. The storm will likely weaken some and get slowed down some as it crosses the Rocky Mountains as Mountains tend to do that to storms, but will redevelop across Southern Kansas by midday on Sunday. The storm will then move East towards the Ohio Valley and I expect it to track into far Northern Kentucky and then into Central Ohio. This would put the Northern Half of Indiana and the Northwestern half of Ohio in a favorable area for heavy snowfall.
The latest 18Z NAM (North American Forecast Model) shows the low pressure farther North diving Southeast from Iowa into Central Indiana and then into Ohio. This forecast track would bring our area rain at the beginning of the storm before the rain changes to snow and several inches of snow would be posible. I don’t agree with this storm track though for several reasons. First the Baroclinic Zone (a region in which a temperature gradient exists on a surface of constant pressure; not barotropic. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening weather systems.) will be much farther South than with previous storms. Also a large and strong area of high pressure will be sitting over the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes and this will force the low pressure farther South.
The storm will likely continue into the day on Tuesday with snow falling, especially across the Northern half of Indiana and all of Western Ohio and it will likely become very windy as the storm strengthens and moves into Ohio before a new low pressure develops off the New England coast.
Behind the storm on Tuesday, Arctic air will rush into the region. Temperatures will be well below normal through the end of the week. To go along with this Arctic air, a strong clipper will dive Southeast out of Canada into the Ohio Valley on Thursday and looks to bring another solid accumulating snowfall to the area.
I hope you have enjoyed our new blog/forecast discussion and enjoy the new format. Also with the new format comes new features, and this means that all of you can now leave comments and questions with each blog entry! So if you have a question, feel free to post it and we will try to answer it to the best of our ability.
For now stay tuned, stay safe and enjoy your weekend!
Brandon Redmond
www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com
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